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07/03/2009 - Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jarrett Hoffpauir came through in a big way in his major league debut, hitting the go-ahead two-run single in the ninth inning, lifting St. Louis to a 7-4 win over Cincinnati, in the opener of a three-game series.
Albert Pujols continued his incredible season, belting his club record fourth grand slam of the season in the eighth inning and knocking in five runs over the final two frames, as the Cardinals began a 10-game road trip with their third straight win. Fresh off being named NL Player of the Month, Pujols upped his major league-leading totals to 31 homers and 82 RBI.
Jerry Hairston Jr. had three hits and an RBI for the Reds, who had won four of five coming into the weekend.
Reds starter Homer Bailey had a spectacular outing, yielding three hits and two runs over 7 1/3 innings, while St. Louis' Joel Pineiro allowed eight hits and three runs -- two earned -- in seven frames.
Nick Masset was on the mound for the top of the ninth, but left after taking a ball of his arm. Danny Herrera (1-4) then relieved Masset and retired Joe Thurston on a pop-up, but Colby Rasmus and Brendan Ryan singled and Skip Schumaker was safe on an error by shortstop Paul Janish, a ball that he couldn't handle on a short hop.
Then, in his first official big league at-bat, Hoffpauir smacked a soft liner to left field. Hoffpauir, a sixth-round draft pick by the Cardinals in 2004, was called up Wednesday from Triple-A Memphis and became the 15th rookie to appear with St. Louis this year.
Pujols then greeted reliever Carlos Fisher with an RBI double down the left- field line.
It was a tenuous bottom of the ninth, but Ryan Franklin was able to pick up his 20th save of the year. Edwin Encarnacion doubled with one out, and Willy Taveras walked with two down, putting runners at the corners. Joey Votto walked before Brandon Phillips struck out to end the game.
The win also moved the Cardinals into sole possession of first place in the National League Central Division, one game ahead of Milwaukee.
Chris Dickerson doubled leading off the bottom of the first. Taveras bunted for a hit and Dickerson scored on a throwing error from third baseman Thurston.
After Schumaker singled and Chris Duncan walked to start the game, Bailey retired 13 consecutive hitters hitting pegging Thurston with a pitch in the fifth.
There was also a scare for Hairston, who slid into a slab of cement at the bottom of the padded fence trying to chase a foul ball near the dugout in the third inning. Hairston then robbed Pujols of a hit with a diving grab in the fourth.
Cincinnati expanded the margin to 3-0 in the sixth. Phillips doubled in Taveras and scored on a Hairston base hit to center.
The Cardinals finally pushed ahead in the eighth after getting Bailey out of the game. Rasmus led off with a single and Schumaker walked with one out. Arthur Rhodes came in from the bullpen and threw four consecutive balls to pinch-hitter Hoffpauir.
David Weathers came in to face Pujols, who creamed a 2-2 pitch over the wall on a line drive to left-center field. The hit came just after a foul ball went out of the reach of Votto.
It was the 350th homer of his career and 10th career grand slam. He's also now 10-for-19 with three homers and nine RBI lifetime against Weathers.
Before this game, the Reds bullpen hadn't allowed a run since last Friday and a homer since June 20, a stretch of 31 2/3 innings.
Votto and Phillips singled off Josh Kinney to start the bottom of the eighth. Dennys Reyes entered to face Jay Bruce, who put down his first career sacrifice bunt, and Ramon Hernandez tied the game with a sacrifice fly to center off reliever Jason Motte (3-2). Phillips made it to third on the play, but was left stranded when Hairston struck out.
Game Notes
Encarnacion was activated from the 60-day disabled list. He had been on the DL since late April due to a chip fracture in his left wrist. The Reds opened a roster spot for Encarnacion by placing infielder Danny Richar on the 15-day DL with a torn labrum in his left shoulder...This was Bailey's longest outing of his career...It was Pineiro's first no-decision of the season.
<< Choo and Tribe pound A's
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shin-Soo Choo went 4-for-5 with two homers,
a career-high seven runs batted in and scored four times, as the Cleveland
Indians crushed the Oakland Athletics, 15-3, in the opener of a three-game
series
<< Bottom feeders, L.A., N.E. aim to gain ground
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two Major League Soccer clubs stuck in the
bottom third of their respective conference tables square off on Saturday when
the Los Angeles Galaxy host the New England Revolution at The Home Depot
Center.
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Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brooks Conrad's first home run of his career
was a pinch-hit, three-run shot to help the Atlanta Braves take a 9-8 win over
the Washington Nationals in the opener of a three-game set.
Chipper Jones, Yunel Es
<< Stockton shares Edmonton Open lead with two others
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brady Stockton posted a three-under 69 Friday
to remain a co-leader after two rounds of the Edmonton Open.
Stockton, who shared the first-round lead with Robert Gates, completed 36
holes at 10-under-par
Moss and Vazquez lead Pirates over Marlins >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brandon Moss and Ramon Vazquez hit early home
runs, and the Pittsburgh Pirates shut down Hanley Ramirez, on the way to a 7-4
win over the Florida Marlins in the opener of a three-game series.
Charlie Morton
Rockies blank Diamondbacks >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jorge De La Rosa blanked the Diamondbacks
through eight innings, and Joel Peralta and Huston Street finished off
Colorado's 5-0 shutout of its NL West rival.
De La Rosa (5-7) won his third straig
Rangers get just enough offense to top Rays >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hank Blalock belted a two-run homer and
Tommy Hunter pitched 5 1/3 strong innings to collect his first win in the
majors on his 23rd birthday, as the Texas Rangers downed the Tampa Bay Rays,
3-1, in
Bowyer wins crash-filled Nationwide race at Daytona >>
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Clint Bowyer held off Kyle Busch and Carl
Edwards in a green-white-checkered finish to win Friday's Subway Jalapeno 250
and record his first victory at Daytona International Speedway.
Bowyer, the 2008
MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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